11 Observations About Church Growth

Article by: Thom S. Rainer

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Is church transfer growth good, bad, or neutral?

That’s a question I’ve heard countless times from pastors, church leaders, and concerned church members alike. And the truth is, the answer isn’t simple. Like many trends in church life, transfer growth has layers—some healthy, some unhealthy, and some just plain confusing.

In the most basic sense, transfer growth refers to a person moving their membership from one church to another. That’s it. No dramatic backstory is required. Sometimes it’s as simple as a change of address. Sometimes it’s a change in theology. Sometimes it’s a change in preference—music styles, programs for kids, preaching style, or a church’s stance on a social issue.

Over the past two decades, our attitudes toward transfer growth have shifted. A generation ago, we practically celebrated it. Today, there’s more caution. More scrutiny. More nuance.

Of course, it’s also given rise to a few humorous descriptions: “shuffling the sheep,” “circulation of the saints,” and my personal favorite, “Christian musical chairs.” But behind the laughter is a serious conversation worth having. So, let me share eleven observations I’ve made over the years about this type of growth.

1. In the recent past, transfer growth was rewarded.

Fifteen to twenty years ago, we measured success by the total number of people joining a church—regardless of how they got there. Transfer growth and conversion growth were lumped together in year-end reports and Sunday announcements. “We had 50 new members join this quarter!” was a cause for celebration, even if most of them came from another church down the street.

2. The pendulum has swung—and not everyone is celebrating transfer growth anymore.

Today, particularly among younger generations, transfer growth carries a more negative connotation. Millennials and Gen Z are less likely to view church like a menu of services and more likely to seek authenticity, mission, and community. They aren’t impressed by flashy numbers. They want to know whether lives are being changed.

3. The consumer mindset has crept into our churches.

Let’s be honest: too much of church life in North America has been shaped by consumerism. People “shop” for churches the way they shop for phones—comparing features, benefits, and packages. If the music isn’t just right or the pastor doesn’t preach their style, they look elsewhere. If a church doesn’t meet their preferences, they hop to one that does.

4. Pastors used to compete over transfer growth—and it wasn’t healthy.

In years past, it wasn’t uncommon for pastors to feel threatened—or even defensive—when members transferred to another church. Rivalries formed. Tensions grew. Church leaders quietly competed for the most visible families or the most generous tithers.

5. Low membership expectations make it easy for people to transfer.

When churches don’t expect much from their members, it’s no surprise that people come and go with ease. But when churches raise the bar—when they communicate that membership means service, sacrifice, accountability, and involvement—transfer growth becomes less casual.

6. More churches are contacting the sending church before accepting a transfer.

This is one of the healthier trends I’ve observed. When someone seeks to join a new church, some pastors are now reaching out to the previous church to confirm the person’s standing. Were they a member in good faith? Were there unresolved issues or conflicts? Were they under discipline?

7. Transfer growth can hide deeper issues in a church.

On the surface, a growing church looks like a healthy church. But not all growth is created equal. A church can be applauded for booming numbers without ever reaching a single new believer. It can be known as the “it” church in town, all while neglecting the Great Commission.

8. The decline of cultural Christianity has slowed transfer growth.

There was a time when attending a “popular” church was simply what good citizens did. Churchgoing was expected. Respectable. Even strategic for business relationships. In that era, people transferred to larger or trendier churches almost by default.

9. Not all transfer growth is bad.

Let me be clear: transfer growth isn’t automatically a sign of dysfunction. Sometimes it’s necessary. Sometimes it’s the fruit of careful thought, prayer, and spiritual discernment.

In fact, one of the most common phrases I hear is, “I don’t want to just jump churches, but I feel like God is leading us elsewhere.” And sometimes, that’s exactly what He’s doing.

10. Some believers leave their church due to serious doctrinal concerns.

In these cases, transferring to a gospel-centered church isn’t just acceptable—it’s commendable. When core doctrine is compromised, members often must make the hard decision to leave and find a church that remains faithful to Scripture.

11. Relocation is now the most common reason for church transfers.

In today’s mobile culture, people move more than ever—for jobs, family, or lifestyle. As a result, the most frequent type of transfer growth comes from relocation.

Transfer growth is neither a hero nor a villain in the church growth conversation. It’s a reality. Sometimes it’s messy. Sometimes it’s beautiful. Sometimes it reveals problems. Sometimes it reflects obedience.

What matters most is how we understand it, how we respond to it, and how we disciple those who arrive through it.

Perhaps your church has experienced seasons of transfer growth—whether through relocation, doctrinal clarity, or even unfortunate church conflict. I’d love to hear your stories and your thoughts. How has transfer growth shaped your congregation? What lessons have you learned?

Let’s keep the conversation going. And let’s continue to pursue growth that honors Christ and advances His mission—no matter where it begins.